FTSE 100 New All Time High Prediction 2015

I’ve done some more in depth analysis on the data I have for the FTSE 100 from 1984.  My goal is to see if I can predict the next all time high of the index, before a correction, however, I have not defined the extent of such a correction, but I suppose this will mean a duration of more than two months until the next all time high is achieved.  

As always I warn that this blog is just based on the assumptions from the data, and, you should do your own research, and, verify the data.  My guess at the value of the index is purely that, and, should not be taken as any indication it will happen.  Let’s face it who would have thought it would have taken 15 years up to now to achieve our current new all time high.  From the data I have extracted the following new highs over the period as illustrated below.

Index Value	New High Date	No. of Days		No of New Highs	New High Duration	% Increase
7037.7	23/03/15	5563	15 Years, 2 Months, 21 Days	6	28	1.55%
6930.2	30/12/99	178	0 Years, 5 Months, 24 Days	8	36	4.68%
6620.6	06/07/99	70	0 Years, 2 Months, 8 Days	1	1	0.33%
6598.8	28/04/99	283	0 Years, 9 Months, 8 Days	8	64	6.79%
6179	20/07/98	106	0 Years, 3 Months, 14 Days	3	6	1.20%
6105.8	06/04/98	186	0 Years, 6 Months, 3 Days	21	69	14.54%
5330.8	03/10/97	58	0 Years, 1 Months, 26 Days	4	8	4.80%
5086.8	07/08/97	150	0 Years, 4 Months, 27 Days	17	99	14.46%
4444.3	11/03/97	142	0 Years, 4 Months, 18 Days	22	82	9.11%
4073.1	21/10/96	186	0 Years, 6 Months, 2 Days	17	67	5.60%
3857.1	19/04/96	78	0 Years, 2 Months, 17 Days	3	5	2.00%
3781.3	02/02/96	143	0 Years, 4 Months, 20 Days	16	108	5.90%
3570.8	13/09/95	589	1 Years, 7 Months, 11 Days	3	24	1.43%
3520.3	02/02/94	104	0 Years, 3 Months, 11 Days	15	64	10.04%
3199	22/10/93	57	0 Years, 1 Months, 25 Days	7	17	3.17%
3100.6	27/08/93	173	0 Years, 5 Months, 19 Days	9	22	4.85%
2957.3	08/03/93	302	0 Years, 9 Months, 25 Days	13	103	8.02%
2737.8	11/05/92	253	0 Years, 8 Months, 9 Days	4	6	2.17%
2679.6	02/09/91	151	0 Years, 4 Months, 28 Days	14	49	5.28%
2545.3	05/04/91	458	1 Years, 3 Months, 2 Days	4	23	3.31%
2463.7	03/01/90	903	2 Years, 5 Months, 18 Days	1	1	0.83%
2443.4	16/07/87	470	1 Years, 3 Months, 13 Days	54	181	42.26%
1717.6	03/04/86	130	0 Years, 4 Months, 9 Days	19	53	18.01%
1455.5	25/11/85	194	0 Years, 6 Months, 9 Days	17	34	8.28%
1344.2	16/05/85	379	1 Years, 0 Months, 13 Days	30	232	17.76%
1141.5	03/05/84	121	0 Years, 3 Months, 29 Days	19	121	14.31%
998.6	04/01/84

So we can see that since 1984 the index has reached new highs from a period of two months or over 26 times.  Based on the figures and working out some strange averages my predictions are as follows:

Last FTSE 100 high (23/03/15) 7037.7

My predicted new high range 7224 – 7626

Expected period of which to reach new all time high is within two months

So there we have it.  Now only time will tell.  I appreciate that my new high range is quite wide, for which I apologise, but if it is good enough for the MPC when they do their wide fan charts for future predictions, then I should not be ashamed to do the same, even though I am always critical of them!

With the close on 27/03/15 at 6855.02 my forecast does look somewhat ambitious, but you can never predict what will happen in the markets.  Investors are still seeking reasonable returns from shares as opposed to those available on fixed income products, so maybe the demand is still there.  At the end of the day though fundamentals, and, future profit forecasts should drive share valuations.