Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) November Analysis over the past 31 years

I thought I’d do some analysis of the movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) share index in November over the past 31 years from 1984, to possibly help me to predict the value of the index at the end of the month!  A very tall order I know, or maybe even an impossibility?  The article is just for information only, and, readers should do their own research.  The prediction at the end is purely my guess, and, could easily be wholly inaccurate.  From the data, which is provided in detail below, the index between the first and last days of the month increased 19 times, and, fell 12 times, so the odds at the moment are with the rises.  As for the number of consecutive years the index rose in succession, this occurred on six occasions, with four of them being for two years, one for three years, and one for five years between 1995 to 1999.  In contrast there are three occasions when the index fell in succession, with both being over a period of two years.

The average for the index between the first and last day of the month when it has increased is 3.8%, and, the average for when it has fallen is 3.02%.

I have also provided the data for the high and low values of the month.  It appears on the face of it that November is quite volatile with the index fluctuating by over 3% for 27 of the years.  The remaining four years were between 2.31% and 2.89%.  The average fluctuation over the 31 years is 5.82%.  It should be noted though that this includes the 21.5% fluctuation in 2008, which interestingly though, only resulted in a 5.3% decline between the first and last days of the month.

The data for the analysis above is given below, with my prediction for November 2015, detailed after that.

Year	Low	High	Diff.	% Diff	First Day	Last Day	Change	%
2014	17,366.2	17,828.2	462.0	2.59%	17,366.2	17,828.2	462.0	2.66%
2013	15,594.0	16,097.3	503.4	3.13%	15,615.6	16,086.4	470.9	3.02%
2012	12,542.4	13,245.7	703.3	5.31%	13,232.6	13,025.6	-207.0	-1.56%
2011	11,231.8	12,170.2	938.4	7.71%	11,658.0	12,045.7	387.7	3.33%
2010	11,006.0	11,444.1	438.1	3.83%	11,124.6	11,006.0	-118.6	-1.07%
2009	9,771.9	10,464.4	692.5	6.62%	9,789.4	10,344.8	555.4	5.67%
2008	7,552.3	9,625.3	2,073.0	21.54%	9,319.8	8,829.0	-490.8	-5.27%
2007	12,743.4	13,660.9	917.5	6.72%	13,567.9	13,371.7	-196.2	-1.45%
2006	11,986.0	12,342.5	356.5	2.89%	12,031.0	12,221.9	190.9	1.59%
2005	10,406.8	10,931.6	524.8	4.80%	10,406.8	10,805.9	399.1	3.83%
2004	10,035.7	10,572.5	536.8	5.08%	10,054.4	10,428.0	373.6	3.72%
2003	9,619.4	9,858.5	239.0	2.42%	9,858.5	9,782.5	-76.0	-0.77%
2002	8,359.0	8,931.7	572.7	6.41%	8,517.6	8,896.1	378.5	4.44%
2001	9,263.9	9,982.8	718.9	7.20%	9,263.9	9,851.6	587.7	6.34%
2000	10,399.3	10,977.2	577.9	5.26%	10,899.5	10,414.5	-485.0	-4.45%
1999	10,581.8	11,089.5	507.7	4.58%	10,648.5	10,877.8	229.3	2.15%
1998	8,706.2	9,374.3	668.1	7.13%	8,706.2	9,116.6	410.4	4.71%
1997	7,401.3	7,881.1	479.8	6.09%	7,674.4	7,823.1	148.7	1.94%
1996	6,021.9	6,547.8	525.9	8.03%	6,021.9	6,521.7	499.8	8.30%
1995	4,766.7	5,105.6	338.9	6.64%	4,766.7	5,074.5	307.8	6.46%
1994	3,674.6	3,863.4	188.8	4.89%	3,863.4	3,739.2	-124.2	-3.21%
1993	3,625.0	3,710.8	85.8	2.31%	3,692.6	3,684.0	-8.6	-0.23%
1992	3,193.3	3,305.2	111.9	3.39%	3,262.2	3,305.2	43.0	1.32%
1991	2,894.7	3,065.3	170.6	5.57%	3,056.4	2,894.7	-161.7	-5.29%
1990	2,440.8	2,565.4	124.6	4.86%	2,455.0	2,559.7	104.7	4.26%
1989	2,582.2	2,706.3	124.1	4.59%	2,645.9	2,706.3	60.4	2.28%
1988	2,038.6	2,170.3	131.7	6.07%	2,151.0	2,114.5	-36.5	-1.70%
1987	1,833.6	2,014.1	180.5	8.96%	2,014.1	1,833.6	-180.5	-8.96%
1986	1,817.2	1,916.8	99.6	5.20%	1,894.3	1,914.2	19.9	1.05%
1985	1,389.7	1,475.7	86.0	5.83%	1,390.3	1,472.1	81.8	5.88%
1984	1,185.3	1,244.2	58.9	4.73%	1,217.1	1,188.9	-28.2	-2.32%

So now for my prediction.  The index closed at 17,828.76 on the 2nd November, 2015.  I am going to go for the close on the last day being lower than this between 17,482 to 17,649.  This represents about a one to two percent fall.  The reason for this is not wholly contained in my data analysis, it is mainly because I still have quite a negative bias on the market as a whole, but I feel the decrease this month will be quite modest. 

By all means feel free to leave your own predictions and views in the comments section, along with any other ideas on how the data could be used to better advantage.